The Final Four

I had a few thoughts about the first round of the Final Four. Let's look past the fact that I was dead wrong on both of my predictions and try to understand how and why the two favorites went down so easily.

The first game, Memphis v UCLA, was a simple case of the triump of athleticism. I don't know how I missed it, but we should have at least considered the possibility that Kevin Love could be contained by an opponent of Joey Dorsey's unique skill set. Love was limited considerably in a 12 point effort and most of the credit has to go to Dorsey for bodying up Love and never letting him get comfortable. -- Just a quick side note, for anyone who concludes from that one game that Love won't be a great pro because he won't succeed going up against bigger, stronger NBA players every night, shame on them; Dorsey is one-of-a-kind, he is gigantic, he reminds me of Ben Wallace in his prime....and there are very few NBA players out there who try that hard on a given night, let alone who have a similar body as Dorsey. Love will be just fine. -- But back to the game, the fact that, like UNC, UCLA had no alternative option past their big. Darren Collison had the worst game of his career and the other guys on UCLA just weren't game-changers. Memphis, on the other hand, had 2 superstars in Rose and CDR and an overlooked and underrated supporting cast.
Alot of people had this team in similar company as St. Joe's of a few years ago, when they had Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, mainly because both teams hailed from mid-Majors and experts thought the grind of playing consecutive games against the nation's best in the NCAA Tournament would eventually wear them out. But Memphis simply has too much talent to get worn out. At some point, talent will best strength of schedule as a team's most telling characteristic. After Memphis lost a heartbreaker to Tennessee, many said they were just products of a weak schedule. What we do forget was that Tennessee, another one of the most talented teams in the country, was at their season's peak when they barely clipped Memphis. Memphis is peaking now, though, and not even the class of the Pac-10 could stand up to the Tigers from Conference USA.

The second game, UNC v Kansas, had much of the same to say as the previous game. This game was won by superior athleticism and a great defensive game plan compliments of Bill Self. I spoke at length about how Memphis' glaring weakness, their free-throw shooting, would cost them at some point; I picked the wrong weakness. It was UNC's struggles from the 3-point line that cost them dearly in this game. They shot 5-24 (!!) from 3, many of those misses coming during an impressive comeback from 26 point deficit in the first half. And when it looked like UNC was right back in it, Kansas reestablished control the way they had in the first half, by pushing the ball up the floor and scoring easy buckets.
The Jayhawks also got a tremendous boost from its bench, including a truly-dominating, if not brief, performance by Cole Aldrich, who in 16 minutes had 8 points, 7 boards and 4 blocks. The 3-point-per-game-averager frustrated Tyler Hansbrough on the block, at one time ripping an offensive rebound from Psycho T's hands. Everytime Hansbrough touched the ball he was immediately collapsed upon by the Kansas defense and double, or even triple, teamed. Kansas had a game plan that they recognized from tape: when Hansbrough gets the ball inside, no matter how many bodies are on him, he's going up with it. He does not pass out of the post, and the Jayhawks drew upon that knowledge to humble the National Player of the Year. It took a very well-executed gameplan for Kansas to reach the finals.

The prediction: Memphis has too much talent for the Jayhawks. While they are both athletic, the Tigers have more skill to accompany the athleticism which will put them over the top. The Jayhawks don't have the size to match up with the Tigers 3 big guards. Russell Robinson, at 6'1, will get stuck having to guard someone 3-5 inches taller than him; let's just hope he's not on Derrick Rose or this one could be over quickly.
Tigers by 8