Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Monday, October 13, 2008

We're Back...with Football

Apologies to our many readers for the 4-month lay off, I know you've been itching for a return, and me and Mr. Epstein are back to scratch that itch. Let's jump right into football; I'll end with some thoughts on the Fall season's historic lineup of TV shows, headlined, of course, by Always Sunny in Philadelphia.

NFL first, and some quick thoughts on Week 6, and the state of the league in general:

I don't remember a time in any sport where the obviously inferior teams routinely pull out "miracle" victories over superior teams, and yet it happens every week in the NFL and people are still shocked when they happen.

This week saw the Rams, widely considered the worst team in the NFL, upend everyone's new favorite team, the Redskins. On a weekend featurning a number of matchups pitting a good team against a bad time, this was the most uneven game.

And then there was the Super Bowl champs, my New York Giants, getting James Thrashed by the Browns last night in a truly ugly display. Experts will ask questions, but they will inherently be the wrong ones. We must ask not, How did the Giants pass rush fail so miserably, How did the Cardinals front 7 get to Tony Romo every other play, How did the Skins lose despite a big day from Clinton Portis? We must ask, Why is it that great teams - and that they are - consistently lose these games?

The answer might be obvious, but it often goes overlooked. With a 16 game schedule, each series, each down, is magnified to the point that any minor mishap could make all the difference. And it is simply unfair to judge teams from week to week because it is impossible to avoid those mistakes for an entire season. That is why the NFL is so mesmerizing, why gambling on its games is so addictively impossible, and why weekly power rankings are about as insightful as Warren Sapp.

In baseball, when, in the 88th game of the year, a starter allows 6 runs and the 3-4-5 hitters go 1-12, the very next day allows for immediate redemption. In the NFL, we must wait a week, and in those 6 days every facet of a losing team's perfomance must be stripped down and thoroughly dissected. This is not in any way an appropriate reaction to one bad day - the only exception in which to cast immediate judgment is in the case of significant injuries to significant players. NFL teams must be analyzed with a wide lens, encompassing multiple games against multiple opponents.

Are the Rams as good as the Redskins? Of course not. Were they on Sunday? Absolutely. But what does that actually say about the state of each team, and their "power ranking." It says as much as a Royals victory over the Red Sox in June would say.

The way the league stands right now, any one of fifteen teams could reach the Super Bowl; and the team that does will most likely being playing its best ball in January, not in October.

And so, with that said, I will offer my weekly power rankings, but in a slightly different fashion. These are not the teams playing their best right now, these are the teams that I believe, barring injury, have the best shot come Winter:

#1. Colts - The truth is, quarterbacks win Super Bowls. With a very few exceptions, this has always been the case, and with Brady out, Peyton resides as QB Marquee in the NFL. The team has struggled thus far, but I don't see this team mulling around .500 for much longer.

#2. Jaguars - They are talented and hungry and haven't played their best football yet. But when they do they are as good as anyone.

#3. Steelers - The toughest QB in the NFL will win games on his own.

#4. Giants - Don't let last night fool you. Eli felt pressure to force the ball to Plax and their vaunted lines laid proverbial eggs. This won't continue.

#5. Saints - I just like this team, and, again, quarterbacks have the capability of carrying teams for stretches at a time.